US holiday retail sales could surpass $1 trillion for the first time between November and December, according to a forecast by Bain & Company.
The consultancy firm projects a 4.5 per cent year-on-year increase in nominal retail sales, with nonstore sales, primarily online, anticipated to grow by 9 per cent, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of the total nominal sales growth.
In-store sales, by contrast, are expected to rise by a more modest 2.5 per cent annually. Bain’s forecast underscores a critical distinction between nominal sales increases and real consumer demand. The research highlights that inflation will drive more than half of the nominal sales growth during the holiday season.
The forecast is based on Bain’s Consumer Lab survey of over 1,100 US consumers. It identifies clothing and accessories, along with health and personal care, as the strongest categories for in-store sales.
Clothing emerges as the highest-spending category cited by 43 per cent of respondents, followed by groceries at 37 per cent, and gift cards at 36 per cent.
Consumer financial pressures remain a significant concern due to factors such as elevated gasoline prices, ongoing tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.
However, these challenges coexist with potentially supportive elements like higher tax refunds and possible tariff refund-related price reductions at retailers.
The role of AI-driven discovery in holiday shopping is currently growing. Bain found that 24 per cent of online shoppers plan to begin their holiday shopping on AI platforms like Claude, Google Gemini, and ChatGPT, up from 17 per cent in the prior year.
Meanwhile, 60 per cent intend to start on retail and brand websites, with an additional 13% using retailer-specific AI agents.
For retailers, the forecast highlights the ongoing tension around pricing and promotions amid inflationary pressures and nuanced consumer budgets.
Aaron Cheris, global head of the firm’s Retail practice said: “The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions, and making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors.”
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