Holiday spending is set to hit a record this year, with U.S. retail sales projected to top $1 trillion for the first time, according to new forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The trade group expects sales in November and December to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% year over year, following a 4.3% increase in 2024 when spending reached $976 billion.
Consumers are expected to spend an average of $890 each, the second-highest level recorded in the survey’s 23-year history. The NRF’s figures exclude spending at auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumers remain resilient. “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” he said.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
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NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said inflation and tariffs have pushed prices higher but noted retailers are working to hold prices steady where possible.
“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation,” he said.
While consumer demand looks solid, holiday hiring is expected to cool.
Retailers are forecast to bring on 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers this year, down sharply from 442,000 in 2024, marking the lightest seasonal hiring since 2009, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The retail sector has also seen a rise in job cuts this year, with 88,664 layoffs recorded through October, a 145% increase from the same period last year.
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