Worldwide digital holiday sales are on track to set a new record this year, with Salesforce projecting shoppers will spend $1.25 trillion online across November and December 2025.
That would represent a 4% increase from the $1.2 trillion recorded in 2024.
In the US, digital sales are forecast to climb 2% to $288 billion. Much of the momentum is expected to come from AI-powered shopping.
Salesforce predicts that AI assistants and agent-driven referrals will account for 21% of all global holiday orders, equivalent to $263 billion in sales.
At the same time, discount-driven purchases may lose some ground. Salesforce anticipates orders placed using promotional codes will fall 2% as retailers cut back on holiday deals in the face of higher supply chain costs.
AI’s growing role in retail
Salesforce data shows traffic from AI assistants surged 119% in the first half of 2025. Conversion rates from these channels were seven times higher than social media and more than double those of traditional search or direct visits.
Seventeen percent of shoppers reported using AI assistants or large language models for product discovery over the past year, and trust levels have soared, 86% of those users now say they trust AI for shopping guidance, up from just 46% in May 2025. Nearly half (48%) of those already using AI are open to letting it complete purchases on their behalf.
Salesforce also expects retailers to lean heavily on AI agents for customer service this season, with adoption growing 39% year over year. As a result, overall human customer interactions are projected to decline by 2.5%.
Other retail trends
Resale will be another key driver, with Salesforce predicting $64 billion in secondhand holiday sales, partly influenced by consumer concerns over tariffs. Nearly half (46%) of respondents said they plan to give a pre-owned gift, citing cost savings as the top motivator.
Shoppers also plan to time their spending carefully: 77% of those surveyed said they’ll wait until Cyber Week to make major purchases.
Despite the surge in digital activity, Gen Z remains committed to physical stores. Three out of four Gen Z consumers plan to shop in person during the holidays, particularly around Black Friday. For every $1 this cohort spends online, Salesforce estimates they will spend $3 in-store.
The forecasts draw on analysis of data from 1.5 billion global shoppers using Salesforce Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud, and Agentforce.
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