US e-commerce sales are projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, accounting for 29% of total retail sales, according to new data from Forrester.
Total US retail sales, excluding gas and automotive, are forecast to grow from $5.2 trillion in 2025 to $6.2 trillion by 2030.
Of that, roughly $4.4 trillion, or 71%, will still come from physical stores, underscoring the continued dominance of brick-and-mortar retail.
Forrester attributes online growth to a wave of Gen Z consumers entering the workforce, advances in logistics and fulfilment infrastructure, and the rise of so-called “agentic commerce,” where AI-driven tools facilitate purchasing decisions.
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Even so, stores remain central to retail strategy. Physical locations offer tangible product interaction, in-person comparison shopping, social engagement and personalised service, elements the report says continue to draw shoppers offline.
Separate research from Colliers found in-store sales have declined only once in the past 15 years, during the 2020 pandemic lockdowns.
Meanwhile, online remains a critical growth channel, particularly during peak periods. Between 1 November and 31 December last year, US consumers spent $257.8 billion online, up 6.8% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics, which also reported a 693% surge in traffic to retailers from generative AI tools.
However, frequency data suggests some moderation in daily online shopping habits. A recent survey by Salsify found the share of consumers shopping online every day has fallen from 21% to 9%.
The projections reinforce a hybrid retail future, where digital channels expand but stores continue to anchor the majority of consumer spending.
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