Holiday retail spending in the US is projected to cool this year, with Deloitte forecasting the slowest growth since the pandemic era.
The consultancy’s annual holiday outlook estimates total sales between November 2025 and January 2026 will rise 2.9% to 3.4%, reaching $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion.
A year ago, holiday sales grew 4.2% to $1.57 trillion, according to US Census Bureau data.
E-commerce remains a bright spot. Deloitte predicts online sales will climb between 7% and 9% year over year, bringing in $305 billion to $310.7 billion. That compares with 8% growth last season, when online spending reached an estimated $285 billion.
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte and US retail and consumer products leader.
“Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
The firm also expects disposable personal income to increase by 3.1% to 5.4% over the holiday season. Deloitte economists note that income gains are a reliable indicator of retail and digital sales performance.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” said Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights.
“While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.”
Other forecasters have issued slightly more optimistic projections with Bain & Company expecting November and December sales to rise 4% year on year, surpassing $975 billion.
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