U.S. shoppers are continuing to migrate toward mass-channel retailers and dollar stores for groceries, as financial anxiety reshapes purchasing behavior, with Walmart widening its lead.
Walmart’s grocery penetration reached a record 72% in the latest Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) from Dunnhumby.
The quarterly report measures the share of respondents who say they purchased groceries from a specific retailer in the past month, either in-store or online.
For the first time, mass-channel retailers matched traditional supermarkets at 79% penetration, a milestone the study described as a “fundamental shift” in U.S. shopping patterns.
Since the tracker launched in April 2022, mass-channel penetration has climbed five percentage points.
Walmart, which serves more than 190 million Americans each month, posted a six-percentage-point year-over-year increase in penetration, the largest gain among all retailers tracked. Its reach is roughly 2.5 times that of second-place Dollar General, which stands at 28.6%.
Dollar stores overall have climbed to 42% penetration, overtaking club stores for the first time since August 2023. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar joined Dollar General in posting four- to six-percentage-point gains year over year.
Inflation perceptions remain a key driver. Dunnhumby found U.S. consumers believe food inflation is running at 19.6%, more than eight times the actual 2.4% rate recorded in December 2025.
Households earning under $50,000 perceive inflation at 23.6%, nearly 10 times the official rate.
“We are seeing that U.S. households are realigning where they shop based on affordability,” said Matt O’Grady, president of the Americas for Dunnhumby.
He noted that, unlike the 2023 inflation spike, consumer concern has lingered even as price growth has moderated.
“The consumer is just not feeling it,” he said, adding that behaviors ranging from coupon usage to AI adoption now revolve around saving money.
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The report’s 12th wave also highlighted growing financial strain:
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Nearly 40% of Americans ages 45–54 reported food insecurity — defined as reducing meal size or skipping meals due to financial hardship — the highest rate of any age group. One in three families with children reported food insecurity. Working-age adults experience it at more than four times the rate of those over 65.
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During the holiday season, shoppers eased back on aggressive price-seeking tactics. Visits to low-price stores fell 2.1 percentage points and premium purchases declined 1.5 points. However, bulk buying rose 1.3 points, suggesting selective seasonal spending paired with longer-term stockpiling strategies.
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Coupon redemption through loyalty programs climbed to 47%, up 2.5 points from the prior wave — the strongest behavioral shift recorded in this period. Fifty-two percent of shoppers now actively identify themselves to claim rewards. Sixty-eight percent seek discounts on items they regularly buy, and 62% expect retailers to offer abundant promotions.
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Just 15% of U.S. consumers use AI tools for grocery shopping. Trust remains the primary barrier: 38% say they see no need for AI assistance, while 37% prefer making their own decisions. Nineteen percent of U.S. respondents express distrust in AI recommendations, compared with 12% across the broader Americas region.
Dunnhumby surveyed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile and the United States for Wave 12 of the CTT.
The online interviews were conducted in December 2025; the previous wave was fielded in August 2025.
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