Seasonal retail jobs are on track to fall to their lowest level since 2009, as companies prepare for the holiday rush with leaner staffing models.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects that retailers may add fewer than 500,000 workers in the final three months of 2025, the smallest holiday hiring gain in 16 years.
The muted outlook follows a summer of subdued employment announcements, according to the firm’s 2025 Seasonal Hiring Report.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, senior VP at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Some chains have announced plans but kept details vague. Kohl’s confirmed it will bring on seasonal workers without specifying a number, while Target directed applicants to its hiring portal, noting that it enters the holidays with a “strong, experienced team” supplemented by its “On-Demand” workforce.
Challenger cautioned that even if sales outperform expectations later in the season, retailers appear unwilling to commit to a big hiring spree upfront. “This year may be more about doing more with less,” he said.
The pullback extends beyond stores. Seasonal hiring in transportation and warehousing is also forecast to decline. Employers in the sector added 303,700 jobs in Q4 2024, already the lowest level since 2019, and Challenger expects further reductions as logistics companies increasingly depend on automation, flexible scheduling, and year-round staff.
“Companies have been steadily restructuring their workforces this year, with a sharper focus on efficiency and technology,” Challenger said.
“The traditional seasonal spike in warehousing and shipping jobs is no longer as pronounced, and that shift could be permanent.”
Even so, the broader retail workforce remains historically strong. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the sector employed 15.55 million workers in August, the highest level since 2018, when it peaked at 15.71 million.
But Andy Challenger warned that economic uncertainty could affect both retailers and shoppers in the months ahead: “With hiring slowing across the board, retailers may hire fewer workers themselves, while many of their shoppers slow spending.”
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