US online holiday sales are expected to rise 5.3% year over year to $253.4 billion, according to new data from Adobe Analytics — but discounts will likely remain flat compared to 2024.
Adobe’s forecast, covering the period from 1 November to 31 December, predicts that holiday promotions will peak at up to 28% off listed prices.
Electronics, apparel, and furniture are set to drive most of the online spending. Cyber Monday will remain the largest online shopping day, though Black Friday is projected to see faster growth at 8.3%.
While the figures suggest moderate spending growth, Adobe’s findings reflect a more cautious consumer mindset amid ongoing economic pressures.
The company expects a sharp 11% increase in buy now, pay later (BNPL) use, accounting for $20.2 billion in online purchases, about $2 billion more than last year.
Other research paints a mixed picture for consumer confidence. McKinsey’s ConsumerWise data shows optimism slipping slightly in August, with only 41% of shoppers expressing a positive outlook on the economy.
Meanwhile, a national survey from Experian and GroundTruth found that 27% of shoppers plan to spend less this season, compared to 22% who expect to spend more.
Adobe also anticipates an uptick in high-end purchases, with the share of units sold for premium products expected to jump 52% in electronics and 39% in appliances. Grocery and furniture, by contrast, are likely to see shoppers trading down to lower-priced items.
Adding a new twist to online shopping this year, Adobe forecasts a 520% increase in AI-driven traffic, following OpenAI’s recent integration of e-commerce checkout features into ChatGPT via partnerships with Etsy and Shopify.
With major retailers including Walmart, Target, Amazon, and Kohl’s launching early October deal events, Adobe’s data suggests the competition for cautious holiday shoppers will be fiercer, and start earlier, than ever.
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